What’s next for the global economy? In this article, Anders Magnusson, Chief Economist at BDO Australia, examines the global economic outlook through the impact of geopolitics, artificial intelligence and changing demographics.  

Artificial intelligence: productivity promise, uneven diffusion, and new constraints

AI is emerging as a contributor to productivity growth, though the timing and distribution of gains remain uncertain. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) modelling suggests AI could add around 0.4–1.3 percentage points to annual labour productivity growth over the next decade in high-exposure economies. Early signals in the United States are consistent with that upside, where AI adopting sectors such as finance and professional services have been outperforming on productivity. 

“The macro question is not just how big the uplift is, but who captures it.” 

Diffusion is uneven across countries. Anthropic’s analysis of Claude usage finds high income economies are over represented relative to their working age population, implying a risk that AI reinforces global income gaps if the benefits concentrate where skills, capital, data and compute already sit. 
A constraint that is moving quickly from technical to macro-relevant is energy. The International Energy Agency expects global electricity demand from data centres to more than double by 2030 in its base case. Power prices, grid capacity and approvals are therefore becoming part of the AI adoption function, shaping where activity clusters and how fast it scales. 
This matters for markets as well as growth. Public sentiment remains cautious across many countries, and the OECD has warned that lower than expected returns on AI investment could trigger broader repricing, tightening financial conditions, weakening private demand, and raising financial stability risks. The practical implication is that strategic decisions need to be robust to multiple paths, from rapid productivity acceleration to slower diffusion, or a period of market adjustment if expectations run ahead of realised gains. 

Demographics: diverging labour markets 

“Demographics are pulling global labour markets in opposite directions.” 

In developing economies, the World Bank estimates about 1.2 billion young people will reach working age between 2025 and 2035. Whether this becomes a dividend or persistent underemployment, will depend on job creation capacity and the ability to connect to global supply chains. 
In OECD countries, demographic ageing is tightening labour supply and raising the urgency for productivity gains. The OECD reports the old age dependency ratio has risen from 19 per cent in 1980 to 31 per cent in 2023 and is projected to reach 52 per cent by 2060, implying a rising fiscal burden and structurally tighter labour markets unless productivity growth compensates. 
The consequence is rising pressure for labour to move globally. Migration may intensify (often of skilled workers), easing bottlenecks in advanced economies but risking ‘brain drain’ elsewhere. A better outcome for developing economies is deeper supply chain integration that creates employment locally while connecting to advanced economy demand, turning demographic momentum into income growth rather than instability. That task becomes more urgent at a time when AI may already be complicating entry level opportunities. 
 

Geopolitics: decision making under uncertainty 

We continue to experience global economic uncertainty driven by geopolitical challenges. In this environment, scenario planning is critical for decision making.  
“Rather than asking ‘what will happen’, the more useful question is: what happens if conditions are better or worse than expected?” 
The value of scenarios is that they force business to focus on risk and potential exposure.  
Scenario planning also helps prevent ‘headline capture’. Even when geopolitics dominates attention, other risks can still break either way. A clear example is AI. If expected returns disappoint and markets reprice, investment conditions could tighten at the same time as energy costs rise, compounding downside risk. The aim is to keep decisions anchored to the structural forces (AI diffusion, demographics, supply-chain realignment) while stress testing for shocks that can change the near-term path. 
For professional services firms and our clients, that approach supports faster, calmer decisions. It helps protect cash flow and delivery capacity in the downside scenarios, while keeping firms ready to invest and able to capture opportunity if conditions stabilise sooner than expected.

What this means for businesses in Lebanon

Lebanon's AI landscape is developing at a different pace from many GCC markets, yet the forces shaping the global economy are no less relevant for Lebanese businesses. Organisations operating in Lebanon increasingly serve regional clients, participate in international supply chains and compete for talent in a market where technology adoption, workforce mobility and geopolitical developments are becoming key determinants of competitiveness.
Artificial intelligence is also gaining momentum within Lebanon's digital economy. The country launched its , providing a roadmap for AI adoption across government, business and education while promoting responsible governance and innovation.
For many organisations, however, the greater opportunity lies beyond domestic adoption. As neighbouring GCC countries continue investing heavily in AI infrastructure, digital transformation and advanced industries under their national visions, Lebanese businesses with regional operations or export ambitions will increasingly need to align with evolving customer expectations, governance standards and technology ecosystems.
Whether AI adoption accelerates rapidly, progresses unevenly or delivers more gradual productivity gains, resilient governance, workforce readiness and strategic planning remain competitive advantages for businesses operating in Lebanon and across the wider region.
BDO in Lebanon supports businesses in assessing the commercial implications of AI adoption, strengthening governance and risk management frameworks, evaluating tax and regulatory considerations, improving cyber resilience and developing strategies that remain robust under different economic scenarios. For organisations operating locally or across the GCC, our professionals combine local market insight with regional and international expertise to help clients make informed decisions with confidence.